Ask me about:

  • Science (biology, computation, statistics)
  • Gaming (rhythm, rogue-like/lite, other generic 1-player games)
  • Autism & related (I have diagnosis)
  • Bad takes on philosophy
  • Bad takes on US political systems & more US stuff

I’m not knowledgeable about most other things

  • 14 Posts
  • 10 Comments
Joined 7 months ago
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Cake day: September 15th, 2024

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  • Disclaimer: not a professional investor, trader, or finance researcher. I literally just have a mix of US and international index funds and bonds.

    These are just my personal opinions and I probably don’t know more than OP… My view of the stock market, especially with short-term changes is… I don’t assume anything to make rational sense, or that the market could really be quite stupid.

    Maybe my view was influenced by A Random Walk Down Wall Street… but my main consideration was below:

    • So-called “meme stocks” and hype cycles have existed for hundreds of years, much longer before the current LLM hype and the previous crypto hype
    • There is a somewhat “successful” strategy of buying a stock to sell it to the next sucker, which would be very prone to the entire thing collapsing

    Especially considering that LLM is the current hype (and the hype cycle might be ending), I… imagine just about anything could happen.

    More specifically regarding Nvidia though, I mean they’ve already made their fair share of money because their technology was used for both crypto and LLMs so… They already won anyway, so who’s really hurt from their stock dropping a bit?


  • Yes, I already did, even before this particular news broke out…

    I tried to individually tell every one I know IRL (which is not too many ppl sadly), basically told every single one of them to consider back-up career options… There are a couple of 1-year exchange students from Europe in my floor and I have not-subtly hinted at them to make contingency plans for PhD training back home. I’ve been following the news very carefully recently so I can share relevant items as soon as possible… The people need to know. I’ve even considered making know-your-rights printouts before they claimed they’re doing an ICE raid in Chicago, but realized how little resources I have for that… I absolutely will do something. Not sure what it is but I can’t see society go this way.

    I just feel bad that as a non-US citizen there is only so little I can do… I don’t even know if I could join a protest without being considered for deportation at this rate. Am planning my leave as well so there’s that.

    Funny incident, I blurted out to my family 2-months ago that Trump will probably build a concentration camp and was told to shut the F up… Murphy’s law I suppose



  • I guess if I am nit-picking, it’s very hard for a statistician to claim anything as having a zero possibility… of course a statement like that helps no one. These are my actual thoughts:

    non-zero possibility

    It is technically possible that Musk’s gesture was not a Nazi salute but rather something that looks similar. Fun fact, this is something that happened with S. Korea’s Megalian hand gesture issue (for example see this case: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2621gzvkdo), where ppl found the gesture in a lot of unexpected places. However, the Megalian gesture is a pretty common hand movement, whereas the Nazi salute… I mean I guess it could happen due to a really bad out-of-context dance choreography?? But that clearly wasn’t Musk’s case

    “But I am just wondering if everyone else sees this that way with no room for it being a result of autism and definitely that.”

    … I mean maybe?? I have weird Autistic intrusive thoughts sometimes but even then this is a bit… Honestly though, I don’t know if I should put any respect to someone who willingly know what a Nazi salute is, and then choose to do it in front of one of the most important political events in the world, twice in a row nontheless. I find it hard to believe such an act to be a faux pass and non-intentional. Heck even if it is completely unintentional, this would be ground for job termination and put on a blacklist for life for most job positions I know

    “Is this where we are? I feel more scared to be in America now.”

    Yeah I know… I seriously wonder why I am still in the US as well.