PumpkinDrama@reddthat.com to

No Stupid Questions@lemmy.world · 10 days ago

How can I learn to estimate the likelihood of real-world events?

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How can I learn to estimate the likelihood of real-world events?

PumpkinDrama@reddthat.com to

No Stupid Questions@lemmy.world · 10 days ago

I’m interested in developing the skill to estimate probabilities for real-world situations. What are the best ways to learn this systematically? Are there books, courses, or exercises that teach probabilistic thinking, Bayesian reasoning, or practical forecasting skills?

I want to check this math and see if the AI is gaslighting me.

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Paragone@lemmy.world
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7 days ago
https://www.kobo.com/us/en/ebook/superforecasting

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- Paragone@lemmy.world
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  6 days ago
  Forgot, sorry: https://www.kobo.com/us/en/ebook/thinking-in-time
  
  The 1st one, above, is the key to developing right-instinct in one’s understandings,
  
  this one is key to understanding complex-unfoldings based on actual-historical-evidence of human-behavior & reactions.
  
  Both recommended.
  
  _ /\ _

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